The Braves Are What They Are

You'll hear plenty of people say the Atlanta Braves' upcoming series, which starts tonight against Philadelphia at Turner Field, is the series which will determine the season for the team or determine what they have. At 35-40 and practically halfway through, I think it should be obvious all that has already been determined. When comedian George Carlin explained why he didn't rail on politicians as much in his act, his reasoning was that he realized that they all came from American families and American universities, and what we have is the best we have to offer. Whether or not you agree with that, the parallel is blatant. This is as good as the Braves are going to get, and they likely will get worse before the season is over.

It's tempting for people to point out that with the Braves playing about as bad as possible, that they are only five games out of first place, and with a sweep they could get to within two games of the first place Phillies. But that's honestly more of a reflection on how mediocre the division really is. Also, factor in the Phillies and Mets have played well below their potential, and that's the only reason the Braves are anywhere near them. Even if the Braves were to pull off a sweep and get within two games of Philadelphia, they still have to catch both the Mets and Marlins as well. And let's do a little quick math. The Braves are currently 35-40, a winning percentage of .467. Let's say that it will take 90 wins to win the division. To do that, the Braves would have to go 55-32 the rest of the season, a winning percentage of .632. And even though the wild card will likely come from the NL Central, let's say the Braves were going to make a run at that. So let's say it will take 87 wins to get the wild card. Even then, the Braves will have to 52-35, a winning percentage of .598. So we're looking at the Braves having to play at least .600 baseball the rest of the way to even have a hope at the postseason. Can you REALISTICALLY expect that from one of the worst offenses in the league?

There are some factors you could point to that could give the Braves some hope in winning and maybe even sweeping the series. The Phillies pitching has been terrible lately, almost as bad as the Braves offense, and something has to give. The Braves will be throwing Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez this series, and they face Joe Blanton tonight, who they have owned. That leads me to the first reality check of this blog...we're talking about the Atlanta Braves. This is the perfect time for them to take a 4-1 loss to Blanton tonight and to be swept at home by the Phillies and subsequently buried in the race. After all, the Phillies have won their last nine games at Turner Field.

Many fans are still operating under the thought that the Braves are one big bat away from being division champions and going deep in the playoffs. Here's reality check number two....the only three bats that would make that kind of impact are Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. And none of those will be in Bobby Cox's lineup card anytime soon. Think about it; if Mark Teixiera wasn't the difference maker, Jermaine Dye certainly can't be. It's understood that if the Braves had anywhere near a good offense, they'd be in first place and in pennant contention. Their pitching staff is as good as any. Ignore Lowe's (7-6, 4.53 ERA) last three starts, all of which have been horrible, and he's been what was expected of him. Ignore the win-loss records of Jair Jurrjens (5-6, 2.93) and Javier Vazquez (5-7, 3.04), and you could make an argument for either one of them to be the National League starter in the All-Star game. But their lack of run support is going to cost them both a spot on the roster and Cy Young consideration. That's not to mention Tommy Hanson (4-0, 2.48), who, if he keeps it up, will probably be Rookie of the Year.

But the Braves just do not have an offense. Jeff Francoeur has gone all the way from the real-life version of Roy Hobbs (as penned by Sports Illustrated three years ago) to one of the five worst outfielders in the game. Kelly Johnson has been absolutely terrible, and is regressing rather than progressing like he should be at 27. Yunel Escobar is still talented and having a respectable year, but he's now seen as a hassle in the clubhouse, and he seems to have given up on hustling. Finally Casey Kotchman, who is good defensively, has provided a whopping two home runs at the first base position. Granted he's never been more than a 15-20 home run guy, two won't cut it. Which brings me to reality check number three...it's time for the Braves to realize they won't be serious contenders this year and enter the sellers market and rebuilding mode. You could make an argument that in some ways the rebuilding mode, even if not self-consciously, has begun. Atlanta didn't make the play for a power-hitting corner outfielder that they needed to in the offseason, but rather brought in an aging Garret Anderson to serve as a stopgap. Anderson and Kotchman are both likely stopgaps for the two 19-year-olds (leftfielder Jason Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman) in the farm system who are supposed to be the next big thing. But take that with a gargantuan grain of iodized salt; Francoeur was the next big thing not too long ago.

You could say that Frank Wren's job is likely on the line (There seems to be some tension between John Scheurholz and him about how the Smoltz and Glavine situations were handled.), and that he may try and go balls out for the division. But if the Braves continue down that path without a realistic shot at winning a world series, they will forever be stuck in this hole of mediocrity. Now besides the top prospects such as Heyward and Freeman in the system, McCann, Hanson, Nate Mclouth and Jurjjens should be seen as untouchables (unless there's a total mind-blowing deal for Jurjjens). Everybody else should be seen as expendable. It'd be hard to part with Vazquez and Lowe, but they could net you a good return. Tim Hudson will be back later this year, which will give the Braves six good starting pitchers. Another couple that could be dealt are relievers Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez.

It's realistically going to be hard to trade Francoeur or Johnson for much more than a bat boy, some Gatorade coolers, a sample of dirt from the bullpen and free tickets to a Coldplay concert because those two are so terrible. Escobar still has value and should be dealt. And finally we have Chipper Jones. It may very well be time for him to go. I know, you can say it'll never happen, and you're probably right. As of now, he's in the worst slump of his career, but as good of a hitter as he is, he'll snap out of it. And if he happens to get red-hot before the trade deadline, that's a perfect opportunity to send him to a team and get a nice little rip-off. But in looking toward the future, I'd say Chipper's time is running thin. The only problem with letting him go however, is that it would be a public relations disaster and lower an already pathetic attendance that much lower.

Finally Bobby Cox's ship needs to sail. You can keep him the rest of this year, since the team isn't really going anywhere. But in the offseason, he should be given the option of retirement or being fired. Cox has grown too old and is not the aggressive manager he once was and needs to be. The Braves are not a power-hitting team, and yet they don't steal bases. They don't hit and run; they don't bunt runners over. They don't do things that can generate more runs rather than sitting back and waiting on the three-run homer that hardly ever comes.

It's time for the Braves to wake up and smell the roses, and maybe a sweep at the hands of the Phillies could do that. This is what they are going to be the rest of the season. Why not trade away what they can, and get some great talent in return and look towards contending the next few years? In the end, that's what the fans really deserve, isn't it?