More Braves Stuff

Okay so once again, it's been a month since I have posted on this blog. I've been struggling with time and haven't been as inspired to write. And clearly I don't have a lot of people reading this blog, so I'm trying to link people to it from my Facebook. But with a new football season getting ready to start, I'll be providing a lot more on the sports front, and there's plenty to talk about the political world and many other subjects. Within the next week or so, I'll be giving some pre-season picks on football and be analyzing the baseball pennant races a little more closely.

The Braves were 38-40 when I wrote my last blog on here. Since then; 17-13. At 55-53, they are now officially two thirds through the regular season. Coming into play today, they are 6.5 games back in the National League East race and 5 games back in the Wild Card. With 54 games left, they theoretically still have a chance. But the fact hasn't changed that the Braves are still a .500 baseball team that I'm not convinced is capable of going on the tear they need to make the playoffs.

Let's look at the Wild Card leader San Francisco, who at 60-48 would finish 90-72 if they were to continue their current pace. To get the 91 wins needed, the Braves would have to go 36-18 the rest of the way. That's a .667 winning percentage. Two wins for every three games. It's not impossible but very hard to do. Clearly the many games the Braves blew earlier this year, as well as the three games they blew on the road right before the All-Star break are coming back to haunt them. They got a brutal wakeup call last weekend when the MLB-best Dodgers came into Turner Field and dominated, outscoring the Braves 17-5 and taking two out of three games. In reality, the Braves were very fortunate to win the one game they did.

And now tonight they start a four game series in Los Angeles. They'll need at least a split, and probably three out of four to actually convince me they're still contenders. My biggest point in that I am not convinced the Braves have a realistic shot is that they are behind four teams in the Wild Card race, five once you factor in that the Cubs and Cardinals are tied atop the Central Division standings. So they have to catch up with at least four of those teams to get in the playoffs. They'll have plenty of opportunities to surpass the Marlins with another 10 games remaining against them. But they have three games left with the Cardinals, and they are done with the Cubs, Giants and Rockies, which makes it harder to directly impact these circumstances. The division provides almost as good as a chance. The Braves also have nine games left against the Phillies, a team which they have gone 7-2 against. However, this is a drastically different Philadelphia team than the one struggling the last time these two faced each other. The addition of 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee has made their starting rotation much better, and on offense, they're killing the ball.

If the Braves are going to make a serious push, the next nine games should settle whether or not they are serious or not. These four games in LA will be followed by a two-game set with the Nationals in Atlanta. And then next weekend, the Phillies will be at Turner Field again. If the Braves are any worse than three games or so out in the division and Wild Card by the end of next weekend, it may be time to look toward next year.

Now if the Braves are going to get serious about making this push, they'll need three things. One is what they've had all year: great starting pitching, a category in which they are second to none. Another is a consistent offense, which obviously has been a big problem. Adam Laroche has provided a spark to the lineup, going 9-18 with some big hits since his return. A glaring hole remains in right field though. As much as I love Matt Diaz, he does not hit right-handed pitching well enough to be out there every day. Ryan Church is a decent player but has not been healthy even though he did get back in the lineup yesterday. The potential solution is in AA, with right-fielder Jason Heyward. At 19 and turning 20 on Sunday, Heyward is hitting well over .400 with an on-base percentage over .500 to go along with 17 extra base hits in 28 games since his promotion to AA Mississippi. He is without a doubt the most highly touted prospect to come through the organization since Andruw Jones, and it's believed he could have an immediate impact if he gets the call-up, similar to how Jones impacted the team in his call-up in 1996. At 6-5 and 230 pounds, Heyward has drawn comparisons to Darryl Strawberry, and he has remarkable discipline at the plate. Heyward may be the shot in the arm the offense needs. And finally the Braves could use more bullpen help. The Braves will also be getting Tim Hudson back, which means that most likely Kenshin Kawakami would go to the bullpen. And when Omar Infante returns, the Braves will have their key bench bat back.

So the chance, albeit a small one, still remains for the Braves to make the playoffs. Should they fall out of it in the next two weeks, there will still be reasons to watch the team. Heyward most likely will be a September call-up if not in August. It's unlikely the Braves would be able to keep both Hudson and Javier Vazquez next season, so it will be important to see how Hudson does coming off his injury. But please Braves fans, when it comes to this playoff race, don't hold your breath. You most likely will wind up disappointed.